Blue Gold:
4 October 2009
By Robert SuttonThe British nonprofit International foundation, The Pacific Institute has released a report identifying forty six countries where water and climate stresses could ignite violent conflict by 2025, prompting the UN Secretary General Ban Ki moon to affirm, "The consequences for humanity are grave. Water scarcity threatens economic and social gains and is a potent fuel for wars and conflict".
Conflicts over water is found in every era and region, the English word “rivalry” comes from a Latin term for “one who uses the same stream as another.” And more recently, questions about who gets to exploit water have become intertwined with questions about where the technological and ecological limits of our ability to do so lie.
Nowhere are the stakes higher than in the Himalayas and on the Tibetan plateau, here the water related dreams and fears of half the human race come together. No other region combines comparable numbers of people, scarcity of rainfall, dependence on agriculture and vulnerability to climate change.
The Tibetan plateau is the Principle Asian watershed and source of ten major rivers. Tibet's water travels to 11 countries and are said to bring fresh water to over 85% of Asian populations, about 50% of world’s population. Four of the worlds ten major rivers the Brahmaputra, Indus, Yangtze, and Mekong have their head water on the Tibetan plateau.
The other major Rivers which originate from Tibet are Sutlej, Karnal, Arun, Huang ho, Salween rivers. South Asia is mainly concerned with Brahmaputra, Indus, sutlej, Arun, Karnali, whose water is life line for more than I billion people living downstream.
As both India and China face the grim reality that their economic and social achievements have depended on unsustainable rates of groundwater extraction and as the technical and financial power of these states increase, plans are moving forward for harnessing Himalayan waters through the largest construction projects in history.
The projects to manipulate Himalayan water now planned or underway are numerous, and their possible interactions are complex. And since many of the agencies responsible for them are far from transparent, the possible scenarios quickly multiply to a point where they are almost impossible to keep track of.
Nepal and India share a huge amount of Himalayan fresh water. The rivers originating in the Himalaya pass through Nepal and Bhutan first and then through India on their way to the sea. The development and management of these Trans boundary rivers and waters have been the subject of several water treaties between Nepal and India.
There have been claims that the treaties are unequal and that the benefits of irrigation, flood control and power generation have not been shared equitably between the countries. India has provided Nepal with assistance in harnessing the rivers for hydropower and irrigation. Both countries continue to develop projects for hydropower and irrigation, and to improve co operation on flood management, forecasting and control.
In the mountain nation of Bhutan there are several rivers, which flow into India. The joint Chukha hydropower project that has provided much needed electricity to eastern India has also increased electricity consumption and some industrial growth in Bhutan. Export of hydroelectricity is Bhutan’s single biggest source of revenue.
But now China is proceeding with plans for nearly 200 miles of canals to divert water from the Himalayan plateau to China’s parched Yellow River, not only does China hold incredible power with its hand on the tap, but increasingly the rivers originating in the Tibetan plateau are threatened by record levels of water pollution from industrial activities including deforestation, mining and manufacturing.
And that is not even the worst of the problem, a warming climate is causing glaciers in the region to recede faster than anywhere else in the world.
Water has emerged as a key issue that could determine whether Asia is headed toward mutually beneficial cooperation or an appalling and bloody war. So whatever China does in Tibet ultimately affects everyone downstream. Future predictions about climate change is worrisome, and they are compounded by the fact that things are already bad in China.
Many fear that Tibet's water will be the answer for China's woes as the country having extensively contaminated its own major rivers through unbridled industrialization, now threatens the ecological viability of river systems tied to South and Southeast Asia in its bid to meet its thirst for water and energy.
Plans for multiple dams and canal systems to siphon melt from Himalayan glaciers are ultimately in the hands of the Chinese government as they are currently the masters of the Tibetan plateau.
It is becoming clear that a water war is looming in Asia. India, Pakistan and china are now facing one another on water issues and disputes. And we must remember all three of them are nuclear power states.
