The Growing Danger:
8 March 2009
Asian bird flu or Avian influenza is a growing disease that is evolving each day, in its present form Bird Flu has only been transmitted through people who have had some form of contact with infected birds. Even so it is still possible for humans to contract a mutated Bird Flu virus from one another, in fact scientists have agreed that it is only a matter of time before an inevitably deadly human strain will be passed on to humans.
Asian bird flu has the potential to become the next worldwide pandemic, it has the potential to kill millions of people worldwide. Currently, the Asian Bird Flu is widespread in parts of Asia among birds, both wild and domesticated. Also, the Asian Bird Flu has found its way to Africa and parts of Europe.
How deadly. Even with the advantages of intensive care treatment, fully one third of the first 18 confirmed cases of Asian bird flu never recovered, they died. In the latest bird flu pandemic of 2005, that fraction has increased to one half, that's almost as deadly as being shot point blank in the chest. These latest numbers are suggestive of the death tolls suffered by isolated Alaskan villages in 1918, where, in some cases, half the population was lost to the disease.
And in the latest incident, in Hong Kong, bird-to-human contact was the established transmission route. Fearing a public health crisis, city officials in December of 1997 ordered the slaughter of Hong Kong's entire poultry population, a precaution that has been repeated many places across the globe since. All ducks, geese, and chickens in the city were killed. Fortunately it appears the H5N1 subtype so far lacks the ability to transmit itself through the air from one human host to the next.
Many projections say that when the Asian bird flu mutates and starts infecting humans that up 20% of the world�s population will die. Researchers base much of their information and possible effects of the Asian Bird Flu from the bird flu pandemic of 1918.
In the fall of 1918 a strain of influenza (Spanish Flu) seemingly no different from that of previous years suddenly turned deadly, and raised such a state of panic and chaos in communities across the globe, that many people believed the world was coming to an end. It struck with amazing speed, often killing its victims within just hours of the first signs of infection. So fast did the 1918 strain overwhelm the body's natural defenses, that the usual cause of death in influenza patients a secondary infection of lethal pneumonia never had a chance to establish itself. Instead, the virus caused an uncontrollable hemorrhaging that filled the lungs, and patients would drown in their own body fluids.
Not only was the Spanish Flu strikingly virulent, but it displayed an unusual preference in its choice of victims tending to select young healthy adults over those with weakened immune systems, the very young, the very old, and the infirm. The normal age distribution for flu mortality was completely reversed, and had the effect of gouging from society's infrastructure the bulk of those responsible for its day to day maintenance.
During the 1918-1919 fall period the number of Americans who died from the Spanish Flu is estimated at 675,000. Of those, almost 200,000 deaths were recorded in the month of October 1918 alone. Worldwide, the mortality figure for the full pandemic is believed to stand somewhere between 30 to 40 million. So, with the world population today having more than tripled in the intervening years, what is to stop a modern flu pandemic from claiming upwards of 100 million lives
Today, of course, we have vaccines and antiviral drugs. But in the Third World, at least, these combatants are in very short supply. In India, where the Spanish Flu is thought to have culled more than 10 million from the population, public health care is still deficient. In China, with a population larger again, the situation is not much better. Even for developed countries, where vaccines are readily available, the fraction of the population that routinely subjects itself to inoculation generally hovers around 10 percent. In the event that the public were to receive adequate warnings of an impending pandemic, it's likely of course that this number would be significantly increased. But even then, it may not matter. By their nature pandemics tend to take us by surprise.
It is tempting for all of us, to stick our heads in the sand and hope that the news stories about the possibly of an impending bird flu pandemic are mostly hype. But this is about as wise as living in Los Angeles and assuming that you will never be hit by another earthquake. It is just a matter of time.
There are some not so difficult things you can do to prepare, Stock up on water. Have at least a 3 month supply in stock at any time, and rotate your supply so that you use up the oldest bottles at the rate you replace them with new ones. This way you will never have to worry about filtering existing water supplies if it comes to water shortages in your area. Stock up on food supplies. and rotate your food, so that it is never more than 3 months old. Be sure to buy only the foods you normally buy, as you'll be eating them regardless of whether or not any disaster strikes. Dry foods can be stored separately, but people tend too forget about them and only check their supplies in the advent of an emergency. So be prepared to toss these after a year when they are no longer edible...
Purchase some quantity of air filtration masks which, in the event of a true bird flu pandemic will be indispensible when you need to leave the house and mix with the general populace.
If it comes down to it, and an infectious form of bird flu arrives in your country, one of the most important things you can do to avoid infection is practice safe hygiene.
Today, doctors are no better at treating the Asian Bird Flu than they were other flu's almost 90 years ago because the flu is a virus, recently mutated, that has no direct past history to go on. There are some antiviral drugs that might lessen the severity of the Asian Bird Flu, but there are still many countries that are too poor to take such counter measures and so there are emergency procedures being put in place that would basically isolate people with the virus and stop effected travelers from spreading the virus worldwide.
Asian Bird Flu needs to be keenly watched.
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