Climate Change And Reality:
9 March 2009
At Hardcore Investments we are deeply concerned about the most endangered species on our planet Homo Sapiens, we are in the process of destroying our own environment and the sustenance it provides for our survival.
But why do we chose to believe the weather on our planet has always been benignly supportive of human activity, it has not and the reality of our planets weather history is quite complex and unsettled.
Scientists have been studying the history of weather on our planet for decades, scientists with impeccable credentials in geology, archeology, paleoclimatology, and other fields have identified periods of change in temperature, rainfall, ocean currents, glacier formation and recession, and so on going back 600 million years. We have accumulated a lot of data on these climate changes.
And what do these research projects tell us, periods of global warming have alternated with periods of global cooling many, many times in the past. These weather changes carry names like the Holocene Climate Optimum, the Roman Climate Optimum, the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. Less extreme, and shorter, periods of cooling or warming modulate these larger trends, yielding cold years in warming trends and warmer years in cooling trends. History also shows that extreme weather flux has decimated life on earth multiple times in the past. Years of wet and flooding. Years of dry and desertification. Cold years. Hot years. Its all part of our planets meteorological history.
The main thrust of human evolution began after the last great ice age, about 10,000 years ago. Since then there have been 6 primary periods of global warming and multiple periods of less extreme temperature change. During the Holocene Climate Optimum, average temperatures were significantly higher than they are now. Prior to 8500 BCE, human settlements were confined to the rivers and lakes of Egypt and Sudan. Then a change in the pattern of monsoon activity nourished the grasses and trees necessary to make the Sahara more inhabitable. Lakes appeared. Human habitation spread across the region for the next 2000 years. About 6000 BCE, however, the pattern of monsoons again changed. The desert began to dry out, and eventually human habitation was confined to the Nile, dessert oases, and the Sudan once again.
It was a pattern of moderate weather with plentiful rain that encouraged human migration northward around the eastern Mediterranean. A period of warmer weather permitted humans to move westward into what is now Europe.
But periods of global warming have always alternated with centuries of global cooling. There are multiple examples of weather related human migration. Over the last 4000 years, cold weather has forced northern tribes to move south in search of food during at least three extended periods of human history. As they moved south, these migrating hordes conquered and decimated the settlements they found in their path. For example, the rise of the Greek and Roman civilizations occurred during a period of global warming. Although the decline of Rome has many causes, one of them was the simple fact that the Goths were forced by increasingly cold weather to move south. Rome just happened to be in their way.
Human progress and population growth resumed during the Medieval Warm Period when grains were plentiful, warmer weather permitted the Vikings to colonize Greenland. But this period of growth was interrupted by the Little Ice Age 1300 - 1850. Cold and wet weather decimated food crops. This led to widespread and repeated famines from 1350 - 1800. The Vikings were forced to abandon Greenland.
Weakened by starvation, the people of Europe were easy targets for the Black Death that killed 25 million people 1347 - 1351. Unusually strong North Atlantic storms, perhaps caused by the climate impact of huge accumulations of polar ice during the Little Ice Age, decimated the Spanish Armada as it tried to make its way back to Spain in 1588. Inclement weather, which led to grain crop failures and subsequent famine, was instrumental in triggering the French Revolution of 1789.
Extremely cold and wet weather was a factor in the failure of Napoleons Russian campaign in 1812. Cold and wet weather was a factor in the Irish potato famine of 1845 - 1851 that killed 1.5 million people. Washington's victory in the Battle of Trenton in 1776 was more a victory over frigid cold weather than a defeat of enemy forces. The worst weather of the Little Ice Age occurred between 1645 and 1715.
And so, what does this all mean. Periods of extreme weather have happened before, we happen to be in a period of global warming. Meteorological history suggests average temperatures in temperate zones could reach or exceed 16 degrees C. About 2 degrees warmer than it was in 2007.
It will get warmer and then cooler, no matter what we do. To say we can prevent global warming is to display an ignorance of our planets weather history.
On the other hand, we cannot ignore our environmental responsibilities. Not if we want to insure the survival of the human species. We have to take a common sense approach to solving our environmental problems. Conclusions based on a thoughtful analysis of collected data. Our biggest challenges is the allocation of dwindling natural resources, the availability of fresh water, the preservation of agricultural land, and the management of population growth. Addressing these problems will take a new approach to how we govern ourselves.
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